In honor of a certain announcement out of Cupertino tomorrow, see this great video of Steve Ballmer’s commentary shortly after the introduction of the iPhone. He mentions the Motorola Q as being a great phone in the market place and how the Zune has taken 20%-25% of the portable listening market (the iPod market). Both devices are historical now. A good reminder of the difficulties in predicting the future of technology.
In Ballmer’s defense, I don’t think it would have been great PR for Microsoft to say something along the lines of, “Wow, Steve Jobs really kicked our butts on that one…” One side note about the video: if you look closely at the video you can see that Nortel is also sponsoring this event. Nortel filed for bankruptcy less than 2 years later.
For a little financial perspective, here are some interesting facts (all numbers in billions, unless noted):
Understanding how difficult it is to predict the future of certain industries is one of Buffett’s greatest investment lessons. You don’t need to be an expert in all fields, stick to what you know and wait for your pitch…(see this great post about waiting for your pitch).