Gambler’s Fallacy–An Investment Version

Gambler’s Fallacy has something to do with events and frequency.  You can read about it here.  My version of gambler’s fallacy is that people associate the statistical risk/reward relationship of poker with investing in order […]

Investing Tourism

If you don’t know who the patsy in the room after 10 minutes, it is probably you. Source: A lot of people… For two years, I was the patsy.  I lived in Germany from the […]

Investing Shortcuts

I was supposed to be studying for Criminal Law.  It was a tough class.  I had all the intentions of studying when I walked over to the law school that evening.  Instead Fooling Some of […]

Of Castles and Moats

Earlier this year, my family and I spent some time in India.  I would estimate about 50% of the main tourist attractions in India are Castles or Forts–I am not completely clear what the difference […]

Weight Loss vs. Investment Returns

Most things in life are weekly or monthly.   Think about that for a moment.  Most people receive a bi-weekly paycheck (some weekly or monthly).  If you are trying to lose weight, you have probably […]

Niederhoffering the Investors

In economics, signaling is the idea that one party credibly conveys some information about itself to another party.  A good example of this is education.  If you have a degree for Harvard, it wouldn’t be […]

Investing FOMO

If you walked into a room of institutional investors (think Calpers and Harvard/Yale Endowments), you might not want to discuss how your investment strategy mimics the lessons you have learned through parenting.  Since David Swenson […]

Weekly Thoughts, October Edition

1. Starboard recently replaced the entire 12 Directors of the Board at Darden Restaurants, which owns Olive Garden (and previously, Red Lobster). Unless you are starting a new religious organization, I have to ask why you […]

Off-Balance Sheet Risks

I am almost certain Ron Paul is not on my mailing list, unless he is listed as an alias, such as Edward Quince.*  That matters, because what I am about to write will almost certainly […]