Fizzy Water

The story behind National Beverage is an easy one. I first wrote about National Beverage in 2016 (see here).  You can see financials below:   2016 2018 Growth Revenue 705 975 38.00% Operating Income 93 204 119.00% Margin 13.19% 20.1%   National Beverage is a simple story.  National Beverage owns

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Facebook’s User Network and User Data

Facebook’s strengths rest in two very distinct areas: the user network and user data. If you want to determine whether Facebook is healthy, you need to ignore the headlines and focus on these two aspects. Is the user network still intact? Is the user data still intact? Although the headlines

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Update on Match and Tinder

When I first wrote about Tinder’s parent company, Match, I believed there were two risks. I know I made a mistake with the first risk, and I believe there are lessons to be learned from both risks I identified. First, Tinder operates a freemium network user business model. Users can

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Burgers, Fries and Shakes

Shake Shack (“Shak”) is a burger joint that is much more than a burger joint. It’s tough to describe if you haven’t eaten there. At the end of 2018, Shak will have about 123 domestic (U.S.) company-owned locations and about 85 Licensed Shacks (the majority of the licensed locations are

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VRSN Follow-Up

VRSN reported their quarterly results last night with a brief 30 minute conference call (you could also read the transcript in about half that time).  The remarkable thing about VRSN is really how unremarkable it is. The business is highly focused on managing the .com and .net registry (hoping to

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Facebook’s Stadium

Facebook’s one day drop on July 27th was impressive.  It marked the largest ever loss of equity value for a U.S. listed company.  However, to achieve such a feat requires a large market cap before such a day, quite an impressive feat on its own.  This feat was only accomplished

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Facebook

Everything should be made as simple as possible, but not simpler.  Einstein How simple or complex should an investment thesis in Facebook be? John and I made an investment in Apple a little over two years ago.  It was the first time that I felt like I had departed from the Buffett

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Taro Update

Taro reported their latest quarterly results on Tuesday evening.  Despite the sharp increase in stock price on Wednesday, John and I have both changed our minds on this company’s prospects and thus have decided to sell. The thesis rested on a reliable business with a potential for acquisition by the

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Simple Businesses: Flooring Edition

In the near future, I would like to discuss my (and partially John’s) approach to filtering by using the S&P 500. One company I was researching as I was thinking about my filters was Floor and Decor (although it isn’t in the S&P 500). As a short introduction to my

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Biases and Movie Theaters

This post is too long.  I will highlight a few things at the top as a sort of summary: Owner’s Earnings is the best number to focus on when valuing a business. We often use shortcuts that are horrible measures of value (comparable valuation, Bull Shit Earnings metrics, including, but

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